$AXTI
AXT IncHow his view evolved
Every substantive take he's posted on $AXTI, newest first — each labelled with the stance he expressed at the time.
- Jun 16, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@yangqisniper $AXTI was a fun one. Actually every single one of my photonics ideas last year went up triple % digits. Got the entire theme + supply chain right! https://t.co/vpWpPO18b7
View on X → - Jun 15, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports. Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes) My optical positions are very happy to hear this: From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI https://t.co/v5r0Q2S7lI
View on X → - Jun 12, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@Expelliamus9 $AXTI took many months to play out, before companies and governments started confirming the InP substrate bottleneck. I don’t think CPO related ideas should be judged in a 1 month timeframe!
View on X → - Jun 11, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
@Ud197601 Everyone kept calling $AXTI a scam, and my thesis BS on $RDDT. Glad to see my thesis being validated by Reuters and Chinese/US trade negotiations lol.
View on X → - Jun 11, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
Oh look… a new report by Reuters shows China’s control over InP threatens the AI DC buildout. Who could have guessed $AXTI would have been a major point of failure? https://t.co/mu9sOWGHN6 https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - Jun 10, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@MosheFeins48329 Still have my $AXTI, and positions in others I haven’t mentioned as much like $ALRIB or $LPK. Axt different reason though, one part is dilution concerns, so there’s some newer float structure risks. Other part is not wanting to cause more export controls by talking about some
View on X → - Jun 7, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on https://t.co/5GGFN54PjZ
View on X → - May 31, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory… With $AXTI to $SOI to $SIVE will be studied in future history books? Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history. Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.
View on X → - May 30, 2026Bullish
- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything https://t.co/Vtzc0Ao9gZ
View on X → - May 28, 2026Bullish
@Batemanzm75 People do valuation analysis wrong on names like Sivers or $AXTI. You won’t be able to model $SIVE revenue projections if they’re end up doing M&A + TAM expansioning down optical engines/ELS/optical transceiver stack. Right now it’s looking at all the hyperscaler supply chains
View on X → - May 27, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@DeJeff48985 Idk… I mean everyone called $AXTI a scam and now it’s up thousands of percent? Everyone called $AAOI management a scam and now that’s up 7x too. Institutions went out and criticized my $SOI long as well at $44 and now it’s $170… after they bought the float… Not sure if
View on X → - May 27, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@R_and_Invest I actually got every single one of these predictions right > InP substrate bottleneck > laser bottleneck, and markets rewarding $AAOI with laser fabs for it. But it did take markets 6 months to realize how important $AXTI was. As well as for the bottleneck to start showing https://t.co/9B70oHRaBa
View on X → - May 27, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so https://t.co/sYkMfQfHa2 https://t.co/aHLgIQOnEr
View on X → - May 27, 2026Bullish
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very https://t.co/bWjGIak6OE
View on X → - May 26, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
This timeline of getting banned on $RDDT WSB for posting about $AXTI. That stock going up thousands of percent. Then becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X feels kinda like a Naruto redemption arc to become hokage. Only 12k more to go. https://t.co/J8DNEbYXpl
View on X → - May 25, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH https://t.co/C0IP2nPj83
View on X → - May 25, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, the $SOI. And them watch them all go up https://t.co/1xegMwBgLW https://t.co/C0IP2nPj83
View on X → - May 25, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
I think I deserve my own Netflix special after $AXTI and $SIVE? https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg https://t.co/YATi0X4Awm
View on X → - May 25, 2026Bullish
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) https://t.co/eKiMKt4R7u
View on X → - May 24, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@M3Invest You're comparing Sumitomo finished InP substrates vs AXT. $AXTI owns many many material chokepoints upstream required to make the finished substrates. And they're roughly ~40% of the entire InP supply chain like indium/gallium/precursors to pBN crucibles + processing. It's a
View on X → - May 24, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> https://t.co/IBg13ThOjF
View on X → - May 24, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@doomdayer Thanks! Yeah always fun to have those argument with $AXTI + inp substrates back at $15 with all your random retail investors who have 0 knowledge. Then it just happens to show up in all your Goldman Sachs/JPM analyst reports today as a bottleneck.
View on X → - May 23, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE https://t.co/YbaG1tX0Ul https://t.co/SdxrGMxDFQ
View on X → - May 23, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
5 months ago. I gave a PT of $150 with $AXTI. Over 10x that current values from a $500M MC. It’s now a $9.2B MC and $140. $10 away. New $SIVE longs are starting to realize what’s it’s like to be in AXT. And that I’m pretty good at guessing intrinsic valuations of companies. https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 22, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM https://t.co/6veTTZS2ZZ
View on X → - May 22, 2026Bullish
@labubu_trader They must have a fun time looking at my $AXTI showboating half the time lol
View on X → - May 21, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
People are really out there saying, don’t doubt me off 10% returns. I present to you: $AXTI https://t.co/1i5iXfWhz2 https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 20, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@TigerMeditation Bro China literally export controlled Japan on upstream InP substrates back in Jan, after my $AXTI post, to halt Western AI photonic supply chains. Maybe it's time for US/Japan to fight back, in ways other than tariffs on cheap underwear??
View on X → - May 18, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@johnoao The more I talk about something… generally the more I think it’s unknown/underpriced in current timeframes. They all have turned out well directionally though? Like $LITE, $AXTI, $AAOI, $NBIS from late last year.
View on X → - May 17, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
I literally called out a national vulnerability in the AI supply chain. Then went long on the quasi-monopoly in $AXTI. While everyone was doubting me. Guess what anon: it’s on the White House shortage list and one of the major talking points of US-China trade talks 6M later. https://t.co/mVX0vJ5EuD https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 15, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
@TonsenOle Fun fact: over 70%+ of my portfolio is unrealized, I haven't sold a single share in many of these. It helps if things like $AXTI hit 1900%+ returns, $SIVE hit 1000%+ returns, and everything larger in concentration hit 300% like $SOI. But basically entire portfolio is up
View on X → - May 15, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron https://t.co/kk06ZqwIN2 https://t.co/Adj2khuST0
View on X → - May 15, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
This $AXTI / InP substrate export controls is EXACTLY why: Trump's America 1st policies should focus around securing its supply chains over in EU/Japan/KR. And weaponizing it against China. US alone has leverage, but everyone together has extreme leverage. If you use Japan
View on X → - May 15, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
LOL chat no way... Can't believe $AXTI / InP substrates really a major part of the China-US Donald Trump's trade talks with Xi? I got this thesis completely right. But really, Japan should start to cut off upstream machine supply like Ulvac for humanoids. And red phosphorus https://t.co/3AAMuyN62m https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 15, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
LOL chat no way... Can't believe $AXTI / InP substrates really a major part of the China-US Donald Trump's trade talks with Xi? I got this thesis completely right. But really, Japan should start to cut off upstream machine supply like Ulvac for humanoids. And red phosphorus to https://t.co/oGbkXfjIUZ https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 15, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@RayT168 Pretty high conviction in FOCI, markets underpricing future CPO bottlenecks right now just like $AXTI last year
View on X → - May 13, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on https://t.co/QtzuFKiEyh
View on X → - May 13, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@6m3k4z Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028,
View on X → - May 12, 2026Bullish
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI
View on X → - May 10, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
@pepemoonboy Thanks, im proud of this one. $AXTI made me famous on X. My $GOOGL call at $150 made me famous on $RDDT before that just went up to $400. Hope to see one about a frog next
View on X → - May 10, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@deron0903 Of course I did. But if $AXTI goes down, the optical buildout with $LITE and others goes down too. Which is why I thought it was worth it to go long anyway.
View on X → - May 10, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
@Abolct I’m up like 1766% on some $AXTI positions but I got banned after it went up 10x https://t.co/yrU1RmzNv7
View on X → - May 10, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon? IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER): "The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage" I said as https://t.co/4uMDapIooP https://t.co/woEg8Hcb3B
View on X → - May 8, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@Berlinergy Even now they think it’s all me… movement is largely institutions at this point given $AXTI MC size is $6B+ https://t.co/EajF4uIfNp
View on X → - May 8, 2026Bullish
@meteoralp92 Wait until you hear see this “photonics expert” commentary about $AXTI https://t.co/hWEO50KnLO
View on X → - May 8, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
I’m just going to leave this here with $AXTI. 100% of the comments were negative when I posted at ~$13. And I got banned later after it went up 10 times. https://t.co/6FrSXod6s8 https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 8, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
I’m just going to leave this here with $AXTI. 100% of the comments were negative when I posted at ~$13. https://t.co/ddVarqUIc5 https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 8, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post... That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXTI, $SOI, or $IQE. I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing. Or if they're reading my posts and need time for DD? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
View on X → - May 6, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
And... $AXTI is now over $100, even on a -10% drop. Cool to see this thesis play out so well. I think it's my proudest one... calling both the 2026 photonics supercycle as well as the most upstream bottleneck. https://t.co/eiYElTtWsE https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 6, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up. Today: Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%. Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi. $AXTI and https://t.co/KDpghuhrMx https://t.co/UgdKCNtlXE
View on X → - May 6, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
I think this is just $LITE corporate wording for: “We don’t have enough InP substrates”. Remember I sad last year that as photonics ramps up, $AXTI will just keep growing as a critical bottleneck? https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
View on X → - May 5, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most https://t.co/DY54p2EFUh
View on X → - May 4, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
Still think $AXTI was my most legendary thesis. Don’t think this will get beat by anything, now that it’s near ~$5.3B MC. https://t.co/eM3UCYsQAR https://t.co/nm5cMhxz01
View on X → - May 4, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
Did you listen anon? It’s still crazy we’re still only at the very beginning of a multi year CPO supercycle with $SIVE. This is what it feels like to be the very first to the names I’ve called out like $AXTI, up 6000%+ over the past year. Still think Sivers is the next $LITE. https://t.co/JdfMd7sNTK https://t.co/7Rg7pujShY
View on X → - May 3, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@piques15 Everyone kept saying $AXTI, $AAOI, and $SIVE were "memestocks with no fundamentals" lmfao. Then Goldman Sachs just drops this banger of projections.
View on X → - May 3, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?
View on X → - May 2, 2026Bullishconviction 4/4
@Ishaaaqq To answer that question I’m still holding positions like $AXTI even after 1378% unrealized gains later. https://t.co/yOxz7KGN9a
View on X → - May 1, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
Photonics go brrrr $AXTI +17.34% $AAOI +12.47% Hope you listened to my original thesis anon? https://t.co/SCo3h80afN
View on X → - May 1, 2026Bullish
@vz921 I guess it’s just luck calling out $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $SOI, $AEHR, and others that all went up 3x this year?
View on X → - Apr 30, 2026Bullishconviction 3/4
@ThematicTrader It’s majority institutions moving $AXTI at these valuations, retail shorts might turn out terribly wrong. If AXT goes down from export controls the photonics buildout does too. (Eg. AXT -> IQE -> Macom/lite) and there are bigger problems to worry about. If you just split out
View on X →